The findings of this report are based on a statistical and analytical framework to measure and assess organized crime in the Western Balkans. Six countries and territories are included: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo under UNSCR 1244 (1999). The framework takes a holistic approach in gathering quantitative data from administrative sources as well as qualitative data from court verdicts and interviews with experts, victims and convicted offenders.
This report focuses on selected crimes typically operated by organized crime groups and included in the MACRO framework. When assessing how much of these crimes are actually linked to organized crime - meaning that the convicted persons were found to be part of an organized crime group - the study suggests that 12 per cent of persons convicted for these selected crimes participated in the operations of a criminal group in the Western Balkans. This may not represent the overall volume of organized crime, though, as a large number of offenders undertaking organized crime related activities may be convicted for offences of a minor nature. The bulk of illegal market activity - in terms of quantities of illicit goods or services - may still be managed by organized criminal groups, resulting in greater detrimental impact to society.
Focusing on only the 12 per cent of convictions linked to organized criminal groups shows that the number of persons prosecuted for such offences has increased from 217 in 2013 to 1,328 in 2017, by more than six-fold. This indicates a growing capacity in identifying possible persons responsible for organized crime activities.
However, this increase has not translated into more persons convicted for offences related to organized crime. Convictions are steadily declining in the region from a peak of 744 in 2013 to 491 in 2017. The decline is mainly due to fewer convictions for participation in an organized criminal group, particularly when linked to drug production and trafficking, and migrant smuggling. The conflicting trends suggest deficiencies in the criminal justice response to organized crime, whether it is a lack of capacity to gather evidence, construct successful prosecutions or adjudicate organized crime cases properly.
While the four main illicit markets of organized crime: drug production and trafficking, trafficking in persons, smuggling of migrants and trafficking in firearms constitute the bulk of organized crime activity, organized crime does not constitute the core of these crimes. In fact, trafficking in persons is the offence with the highest share of persons convicted that are linked to organized crime groups, at 29 per cent. However, the overall trend in the number of persons convicted for trafficking in persons is decreasing, meaning that there are fewer cases of trafficking in persons in the criminal justice systems.
This suggests that trafficking in persons is a crime that, compared to others, more often relies on organized crime groups. Interview data indicate that trafficking in persons flows often cross international borders, suggesting a high level of organization in this region. But the larger percentage may also indicate that prosecutors and investigators are identifying and successfully pursuing cases of trafficking in persons committed by groups more frequently than for other crimes.
Focusing on four selected markets and convicted persons who were part of an organized crime group, the analysis shows that 51 per cent of these offenders were convicted for drug production and trafficking in the Western Balkans. In fact, crimes linked to drug production and trafficking are the most commonly convicted among the offences where organized crime groups typically operate. Opiate trafficking and production of cannabis herb are both significant markets in the region. Although drug production and trafficking represent the majority of all convictions linked to criminal groups in the Western Balkans, due to the high number of convictions (groups and individuals), the share of criminal group involvement in all drug production and trafficking convictions is only 5 per cent.
Qualitative data from interviews with perpetrators and victims indicate a ubiquity of organized criminal group involvement in illegal markets, in contrast to quantitative data that depict a low percentage of persons convicted for offences linked to organized crime groups (12%). In the words of one interviewee, “If they say they work alone, they are lying, because these things cannot be done singlehandedly or without the support of other persons.” However, when offences are committed by organized crime groups, it is hard to prove, and the collected evidence may not be enough for a successful prosecution. Statistics from two jurisdictions in Bosnia and Herzegovina illustrate that the development of databases on organized criminal groups, their activities, and the identified individuals involved appears to result in substantially higher rates of arrests for participation in an organized criminal group.
It is also difficult to successfully prosecute organized criminal groups because the structures and modus operandi, as well as the codes of conduct, are designed to obfuscate the nature of the group. Convictions for organized crime often result in stricter sentencing, so prosecuted individuals typically deny association with such organizations even in cases where they confess to committing a crime.
Interviews with experts, victims and prisoners suggest that usually lower-level members of organized criminal groups are prosecuted and convicted, and that organizers and leaders evade accountability for their crimes. Higher echelons of the hierarchy are more sophisticated in their modus operandi and are more likely to avoid law enforcement detection. Those in charge control the finances, supply of drugs and communications. Codes of conduct, violence and the common interest to consume (in groups involving drug-dependent persons) ensure cohesion and loyalty within groups.
Evidence on the structure, operations and membership of organized crime groups collected from prisoners and court verdicts show that they tend to operate in a loose, spontaneous, and time-limited way, particularly those involved in drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. Recruitment into groups is done mainly through the existing familial and social circle and motivated by financial interests. Crime groups tend to have simple financial structures, investing any profits back into the business or in luxury lifestyle amenities. Based on an analysis of court verdicts, the typical profile of a member of an organized criminal group operating in the Western Balkans is male (96 per cent), around 40 years of age, with a secondary-level education, married, with no prior criminal convictions, and operating in the country in which he lives. He is part of a mid-size group (from 6-20 persons) and has been involved in organized crime for less than one year.
The internal structures of organized criminal groups in the Western Balkans are built around their prominent criminal activity. Migrant smuggling groups are loosely connected with one boss or a simple hierarchy and sophisticated modes of cooperation between groups. Collaborators have specific roles such as guides, drivers, accommodation providers or money receivers. Drug trafficking groups are more flexible and less hierarchical in structure, with clusters specialized in certain services (wholesale, retail) and with limited links between them (generally via one contact person). Groups engaged in human trafficking are not cohesive networks, but chain-like, arranged with small clusters at both origin and destination locations, the latter being the location at which they engage in the exploitation of victims.
Data on persons convicted for migrant smuggling in the Western Balkans show that 17 per cent are linked to organized criminal groups. However, there are very few cases of smugglers who act alone without being part of a larger, well-structured organization found in the qualitative data. Prisoners convicted of migrant smuggling have disclosed the method by which migrants are handed over from one group to another at certain parts of the route, indicating a highly structured and organized modus operandi. This work is well defined and territorial –each smuggler is in charge of a certain part of the border and the handover of the migrant group to the next “leg” is done at fixed points. Many migrants make several legs of the journey through the Western Balkans towards Western Europe, either by choice or necessity, and for a variety of different reasons. Migrants report paying multiple times to different smugglers for attempts to cross the same border. The overall cost of the smuggling operations reported by migrants averages US $7,188 from the surveyed countries of origin, which includes those in Southern and Western Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, to the Western Balkans. Smuggled migrants from the Middle East tend to pay more for the journey while those from North Africa seem to pay significantly less.
Expert interviews suggest that profits made from transnational drug trafficking are managed by group leaders and laundered and invested in legal businesses such as construction or import/export firms outside the Balkan region, typically in Western Europe. However, lower-level traffickers, such as the ones interviewed in prison for this report, typically spend their illegal income on affluent lifestyle items such as cars, alcohol, illicit drugs and exotic vacations, or in supporting family members. Usually, remuneration is based on the specific activities a group member has performed. Depending on the task, this could be a fixed amount-such as for transporting a package with illicit drugs-or a share of the retail price.
The Western Balkans is both an origin and destination for trafficking in persons and involves almost entirely women and girls trafficked for sexual exploitation. Most detected victims of trafficking in persons in the region (96 per cent) come from three countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Qualitative information gathered from experts, victims of trafficking and convicted traffickers indicate a changing nature of the commercial sex market in the region. Due to the increased number of women seeking income in the commercial sex market, there is less need for coercion or violence to recruit victims of trafficking which may have an impact on the detection and prosecution of trafficking crimes. However, brutal control tactics are still reported by victims of trafficking, which may be used by traffickers when women decide to stop their engagement in commercial sex.
Firearms trafficking in the Western Balkans is mostly intra-regional, although the high price of weapons in the markets outside of the region also trigger firearms trafficking from the Western Balkans to other parts of Europe, Western Asia and North America. While the bulk of convictions for firearms trafficking involve small-scale trafficking, organized criminal groups traffic firearms within the region to enforce discipline, to intimidate rival groups, or to ensure the protection of a group’s own activities and members. Anecdotal evidence shows linkages between arms and drug markets, theft and petty crime.
Corruption emerged as a crucial enabler of organized crime in the region, whereas the use of violence or sophisticated information and communication technologies (ICTs)are minimal in facilitating organized crime operations.
Forms of corruption include graft or bribery, with examples of law enforcement having direct involvement in criminal activity or control of local markets and even playing a conscious role in the elimination of rival groups. Both violence and use of advanced technology are considered too conspicuous, thus low-tech options are preferred to avoid detection.
